【题 目】 How Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Firms’Employment and Investment Plans? Causal Evidence from a Survey Experiment with Chinese Manufacturing Firms
【时 间】2025年10月16日（星期四），14:00-15:30
【地 点】后主楼1722
【主讲人】卢柯霖 助理教授（华中科技大学经济学院）
【主持人】戴 觅 教 授（欧洲杯 ）
摘要：We study how changes in future uncertainty causally shape firms’employment and investment plans. Using a tailored survey experiment of Chinese manufacturers, we elicit quantitative expectations for future tariff outcomes and induce exogenous shocks to the perceived probabilities of “bad” (tariff increases) and “good”(tariff decreases) states. The design separates downside from upside risk, as real-option and growth-option models imply that each channel depends on one side of the uncertainty. We also distinguish increases from decreases in uncertainty. We find clear real-option effects. Higher downside risk lowers planned domestic investment and employment, with no effect on foreign investment. Lowering downside risk has limited effects on employment but raises investment, with smaller magnitudes. Consistent with theory, these effects are stronger when decisions are irreversible. For upside risk, responses are positive and statistically significant only for firms with lower irreversibility, consistent with the growth-option channel. Overall, the results show that distinguishing the type and direction of uncertainty is essential for understanding uncertainty effect and for designing policy.
报告人简介：
卢柯霖，华中科技大学经济学院助理教授。2018年本科毕业于欧洲杯 ，2023年获美国印第安纳大学布鲁明顿分校经济学博士学位。主要研究兴趣包括宏观经济学与行为经济学。工作论文发表在《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》（2篇）、《Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization》（2篇）及《经济学季刊》。曾主持国家自然科学基金青年项目。